Kurt Shintaku's Blog

• AMD Opteron vs Intel Pentium 4 EM64T/Itanium 2
  The Opteron is a 64 bit processor with backward compatibility with 32-bit instruction sets.  Intel released their initial 64-bit processor, the Itanium 2, as their entree however it could only run 32-bit instructions using emulation technology in Windows Server.  The public didn’t buy the Itanium 2 because of the lack of backward compatibility (and the extreme cost of the chip and the hardware that it was in) and as a result, Opteron was accepted as the 64-bit processor of the day.  In response, Intel quickly produced the Pentium 4 EM64T which was basically a chip very similar to the Opteron and they’ve been playing catch up ever since.
• Windows 95 vs Macintosh
  Windows 95 was heralded as a remarkable revolution in OS technology with the benefit of, of course, backward compatibility with DOS & Windows 3.1 applications built into the OS.  The MacOS has never had backward compatibility with any OS in wide use in either the corporate or consumer marketspaces.  MacOS has never grown larger than 6% marketshare while Windows has enjoyed a 80%+ marketshare.  Even Linux, which has to some degree, "backward compatility" with UNIX-based applications giving Linux a great catalyst to growth, has grown to a marketshare larger than MacOS.
• Sony Playstation 1/2 vs Nintendo 64/Gamecube
  I don’t think I need to explain this on, do I?

Don’t get me wrong:  Just having backward compatibility doesn’t guarantee victory in the marketplace but it sure provides a significant headstart and provides and often an indominable lead in the race for marketshare.  Take the Opteron:  I have no doubt that AMD will eventually lose to Intel in the processor market because supremecy in backward compatibility is a small part of the overall war between the two processor developers. 

That’s why I’m putting everyone on notice:  Toshiba’s HD-DVD is coming fast, it’s going head to head with Sony’s Blu-Ray DVD and I believe it’s going to kick its butt just as the JVC VHS video tape format beat Sony’s BetaMax video tape format, just as Sandisk’s SDFlash memory format has beat Sony’s MemoryStick memory format, just as Philips CD audio format has beat Sony’s MiniDisc format.

Yes, I’m making a broad generalization about who made what format (Sony also had a hand in creating the Red Book CD audio format) but what I’m saying is that the next gen DVD format for high definition is going to be largely dominated by the format that is first to market, the format that is easiest to produce by disc manufacturers, and the format that is cheapest to use for media companies and consumers.

And that’s HD-DVD. 

HD-DVD does not store as much as Blu-Ray DVDs.  They store about 35GB vs BluRay’s 50-80GB.  That may sound like a big deal until you realize that a single movie today rarely requires the 4.7GB in today’s DVD disc using a lackluster compression algorithm called MPEG2.  Using VC-1, the codec standard that HD-DVD standards will likely be based on (VC-1 is Microsoft’s Windows Media 9 Codec) the average movie that might take 4GB takes only 1.0-1.5GB.

Now the average HD movie takes about 4x-5x as much space as today’s resolution DVDs.  It’s easy to see how a disc would only need a maximum of 7.5GB to store a complete 2hr high resolution movie at 1080i.

You simply don’t NEED the 50-80GB of storage that BluRay provides for today’s and tomorrow’s consumer needs.

But dude:  If you could get 50-80GB of storagewith BluRay, why wouldn’t you want BlueRay DVD over HD-DVD, you might say?  That’s easy:  The benefit of HD-DVD is that it’s going to be first to market, it’s going to be easy to use, it’s going to be VERY cheap for disc manufacturers to produce these discs using their EXISTING equipment, it’s going to make HD-DVD discs readily available to anyone that wants to have them either as a studio or as a consumer, and it’s going to be cheap for DVD player manufacturers to produce players that read and write to these discs.

It’s those last 3 bullet points that really drive my point home:  MONEY & AVAILABILITY TALKS.

It doesn’t matter if a product is technically superior.  It doesn’t mean that product will be accepted by the marketplace over it’s competitor.  Sony had a better product back in the video tape wars between BetaMax and VHS.  BetaMax was more accurate, higher resolution, and was the preferred solution by artists. But VHS was cheaper, more readily available, and it was easy to adopt by 3rd parties who licensed the technology for either the discs or the players.  And that’s all it took.  VHS to this day is the format of choice and Betamax is non-existent in the consumer world.

And it’s all coming to fruition right now.  Just recently it was announced that 4 DVD disc manufacturers have successfully converted their manufacturing plants to produce HD-DVD discs. (http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/12259)  Read that again:  HD-DVD discs are being produced by today’s disc manufacturers in their current disc manufacturing plants.  BluRay discs will require entirely new plants to create and entirely new production lines and you’re not going to see them any time soon.

So it should be no surprise that Microsoft has a very close partnership with Toshiba.  With the upcoming XBox360 coming out, it is a commonly heard rumor that HD-DVD players will be available in the next-generation console coming out this November.  And even if the XBox360 doesn’t come out with HD-DVD players initially, they will in the future.  And it won’t be BluRay. 

Fanboys might argue that Sony’s Playstation 3 will ship with a BluRay player.  I’ll believe it when I see it.  And even if they do, it’ll result in a $500 video game console.  This is WAY outside of the bounds of the average console purchasing consumer, meaning only the fanatical or hard core gamer will buy it during the first couple of years. 

And besides – the rest of the world will be buying REAL DVD players… not video game consoles… just to get an HD-capable DVD player.  And those players will be HD-DVD, with the ease at which HD-DVD players will be made – remember that today’s DVD player manufacturer’s are finding it easy to retrofit their existing production facilities to build HD-DVD Players instead of today’s standard red beam DVD players.