Posted by: kurtsh | January 22, 2012

NEWS: iSuppli, IDC, and Gartner all agree–Windows Phone to pass iPhone marketshare in 2015

imagePop quiz. 

“Name one prognostication that the world’s leader in parts and components tracking, the world’s largest technology think tank, and the leader in sourcing marketshare, breadth, & statistics all agree with.”

Time’s up:

  • “Windows Phone will surpass iOS’s marketshare By 2015”

Yup.  For all the hype & ubiquity that you hear and see in around this part of the world for ‘the other guys’, if you keep hearing the same thing from smart people over and over again, it’s probably a good idea to take heed. 

Gartner Group, IDC, and iSuppli all agree that iOS will be the 3rd place marketshare holder by 2015:

That now makes 3 authorities that agree on the same prediction.  For those that are in the “tl;dr” group, wondering “WHY?!?” here’s some things for you to consider:

  • NOKIA.  Nokia’s worldwide presence & expertise as a phone designer & phone distributor gives it a distinct advantage over iPhone.  Some examples include exclusive distribution rights in certain countries, the ability to economize designs faster & more efficiently, the fact that it remains the 2nd largest producer of phones worldwide, second only to Samsung by a thread, and that Nokia is moving all it’s rich mobile services to it’s Windows Phone devices.  And Nokia is exclusively investing it’s technology into Windows Phone.
  • MICROSOFT.  Windows on the desktop will look like Windows on the phone.  The Windows Phone interface is about to become the Windows 8 interface.  Don’t think that’ll make a difference?  Most people attribute iPad’s success with it’s familial connection to iPhone.  This is exactly what Windows Phone is doing.  And if you doubt Windows 8’s coming dominance, consider that 90% of the PC market are Windows OEMs and ONLY SHIP THE CURRENT VERSION OF WINDOWS.  In 2011, over 350 Million PCs shipped with Windows 7 on it, an 8% increase over the previous year.  In 2012, all these shipments will be with Windows 8 on it – PERIOD.  Microsoft doesn’t allow older versions of Windows to ship on OEM PCs.
  • DEVELOPERS.  Windows Phone, in just 1 year will have more developers for it than iOS and Android combined.  How?  Any developer writing to Windows 8 using Microsoft’s developer tools will be able to republish their products for Windows Phone.  The same compiler, the same design tools, and the same skills will provide Windows PC developers with the ability to expand their customer base to Windows Phone users simply by modifying the UI & republishing their touch control app for Windows Phone.

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